Vietnam, Taiwan And Chile Are Biggest Winners In US, China Trade War

The year-long trade war between the U.S and China may have hurt respective business and economies. But a host of third countries gained from the trade standoff, according to a study.

It also said Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary.

This finding by Japanese investment bank Nomura is the latest addition to trade war news. The Japanese study said a section of exporters in the US and China might be to absorb the additional tariffs in their profit margins, some multinationals may also have the luxury of resources to re-shore production.

But trade stats showed that the largest trend has been towards trade diversion. That is how many third countries gained by becoming new suppliers to feed the target markets of the U.S and China.

The additional cost burden mattered to a large number of exporters and trade diversion increased.

Nomura study noted that levies imposed by Washington on China pushed many U.S. companies to look for alternative sources of supplies for various products.

Among the growing list of trade war beneficiaries include Taiwan, Chile, Malaysia and Argentina, the bank said.

Vietnam’s gain

According to the study, for the U.S importers, Vietnam map of business became the alternate source to China.

This South East Asian country added an estimated 7.9 percent to its gross domestic product (GDP) from the new business, Nomura added.

The U.S. slapped a 25 percent tariff on $250 billion of Chinese goods and Trump has threatened higher levy on an addition $300 billion worth Chinese imports.

Beijing too retaliated by slapping bigger tariffs on American imports.

The Nomura study, while illustrating how third-party economies gained from the U.S.-China trade tensions also showed the product classes for which these countries excelled as alternate sources of supply.

Vietnam and Taiwan benefited from additional exports to the U.S., Chile, Malaysia, and Argentina gained by selling to China, Nomura said.

Chinese importers bought soybeans, aircraft, grains and cotton products from other countries, ditching the U.S suppliers, the study added.

The top five beneficiary countries from trade war

According to Nomura, the top five beneficiaries are the following countries with their main export menu.

· Vietnam: automatic data process machines, phone parts, furniture

· Taiwan: office machines, phone parts, typewriter parts

· Chile: soybeans, copper ore

· Malaysia: semiconductor devices, electronic integrated circuits

· Argentina: soybeans

However, Nomura economists warned their study has not captured the full impact of the trade war.

Noting that many forces are at work, it is natural that the economic impact on most third countries will be negative, it surmised.

Among the harmful effects of the trade war will be companies holding back investments and demand compression engulfing the U.S. and China markets because companies and consumers would seek to avoid higher costs coming from the tariffs.

Meanwhile, the U.S. accused China of indulging in “blame game” and trying to misrepresent trade talks between the two sides.

The comments were a response to Beijing's statement that blamed Washington for the collapse of trade talks.